Monday, July 28, 2008

J-11B

So, the big story that came out today is a newspaper article on J-11B. It said that J-11B has achieved IOC (or something equivalent to that in PLA).

Before that, I got a couple of pictures showing H-6M carrying YJ-83K and Z-9C carrying what appears to be TL-10. Sorry, there really isn't much going on with PLA these days with the Olympics right around the corner. The country is pretty much focused on one thing.



Here is the story in it's picture format, you can view it to see it a little larger:

This article can also be found on this website.
1956年,中国制造的第一架喷气式歼击机在我国东北沈阳成功飞上蓝天,实现了中国人的梦想。进入20世纪80年代末期,随着改革开放的深入和经济建设的发展,中国的综合国力有了很大提升。中央军委根据现代战争的特点,决定集中力量发展空军装备,引进部分国外先进飞机和先进技术,尽快消化吸收新技术并加速国产化的进程。这一光荣任务由中国一航沈阳飞机设计研究所担任飞机主设计,中国一航沈阳飞机工业(集团)公司担任主制造,从此掀开了中国歼击机制造史新的一页。

项目管理工程

伴随着重点工程的全面启动,作为战斗机设计的主机所——一航沈阳所,面临着严峻考验。参研单位上百个,研制环环相扣,与此同时,两大系列十多个型号、数十个预研课题高度并行。面对挑战,一航沈阳所迎难而上,深入推进管理创新,为重点工程的顺利开展提供了有力保障。

针对多型号、多任务高度交叉并行、人力资源不足的矛盾,一航沈阳所大胆变革传统科研运行模式,引进先进的现代项目管理理论方法,逐步推行职能管理与项目管理相结合的矩阵管理模式,重点型号实行项目管理,组成项目工作团队,工作任务层层分解,落实到人。一航沈阳所从全所各部门抽调技术和管理上的精兵强将,组成结构发图项目团队,集智攻关,并辅以全所的优势资源作保障,确保按计划、优质完成发图任务。成立发图领导小组、技术小组、计算机支持小组和后勤保障小组,解决发图中遇到的各类技术问题;建立发图技术网站和标准信息网站,实现资源共享。经过连续10个半月的超常规奋战,飞机二维图纸和三维数模,正式移交沈飞公司。通过推行项目管理,实现了资源共享,提高了工作效率,提升了员工的综合素质,有力地促进了重点工程研制任务的顺利完成。

三代机的研制是一项集多领域、高科技于一身的极为复杂的系统工程,要对飞机平台进行多项优化设计,自主创新研制达到国际先进三代机水平的综合航电系统,并完成新型发动机的装机试飞,要在5、6年完成常规需要8到10年的研制任务,其难度和风险是可想而知的。为降低研制风险,确保工程研制进度,型号总设计师系统合理安排,做出了多项降低研制风险、缩短研制周期的重大部署。建立了全机理论外型数模和厂所之间数据传输网络,实现了工程数据网上传输,形成了产品设计、制造、更改全过程的数据管理系统。在外翼、垂尾、起落架等独立部件上,全面应用了数字化设计、制造技术。这一技术的推广应用,简化了设计、制造环节,显著提高了产品协调精度和质量,实现了对生产过程高效管理和控制,缩短了研制周期,降低了成本。建立面向制造的飞机数字模型,进行计算机模拟安装协调,不但为工厂提供了直接用于制造的数据,减少了制造中的协调问题,而且为飞机的改进、改型打下了基础。

调整飞机首飞状态,分状态进行首飞。这项创新,将新技术应用分布于不同飞机,分别试飞,突出重点,各个击破。每架飞机承担不同的试验任务,既保证了各模块的进度,又不受其他各模块意外的影响,逐步达到全状态首飞。他们为新研制的综合航电系统安排领先试飞,使飞机的关键技术得到早期验证。对于新武器系统的制导、应用技术、新材料等新成果、新技术、新成品,都率先在已经研制成功的飞机上采用,实现突破、验证后,再在三代机各机型上进行推广和应用。提前安排发动机在成熟的机体平台上进行科研和定型试飞,通过各项试飞,攻克了大量的技术关键,重点解决了飞机和发动机匹配问题,保证了新型战机按期交付。

提前启动材料、标准件研制工作。在型号没有正式立项之前,所里就提前组建了专门的材料、标准件研制队伍,用四年时间完成了与三代机相关的500多项机体材料、600多项标准件、300多项机载设备材料的研制工作,突破了关键技术,为机体平台研制提供了保障。这些重大部署,不仅使技术难关一一化解,关键技术一一成熟,形成了核心竞争力,而且化解了研制过程中的许多风险。

结合新机研制的特点,一航沈阳所在工程立项之初就编制了项目零级、一级网络图,规定了全机各系统研制目标和研制进度。在技术设计阶段,首次编制了全系统工作开发计划,规定了子系统级的研制任务和研制节点,为下达各项工作计划确定了技术依据。改进项目科研计划管理体制,变一级计划管理为三级计划管理,使每一项工作任务都分解落实到人。

在全状态飞机的研制工作中,试验室试验和机上地面试验是重点考核项目,针对每个试验项目都进行了工作结构分解,设立考核点,明确技术要求和技术责任人,及时暴露项目执行过程中出现的问题,做出风险评估,并提出解决措施。
数字并行工程

一航沈阳所结合三代机研制工作积极探索和创新基于飞机制造业数字化工程的飞机设计流程、技术组织体系和科研管理模式,不仅确保了重点型号研制的节点,也大大提升了飞机设计能力。为建立数字化设计和管理的技术体系,提高飞机设计质量和效率,一航沈阳所结合根据第三代飞机设计和制造、工艺准备和生产工作量大,周期紧张的实际情况决定采取IPT的组织模式并联合一航沈飞一并开展工作。建立了全新的飞机数字化研制流程。创建了产品数字化定义团队——IPT,组织结构上打破专业界限,从全所各专业和一航沈飞抽调设计和工艺人员创建了900多人的并行集中联合设计团队。其组织管理上具有高度的灵活性和适应性,人员和设备根据任务需要随时调配;技术上实行分层管理。办公形式是将900人的联合设计团队按部件分成7个IPT集中工作。IPT的组织和管理模式不以研究室专业为单位,设计各专业高度并行、专业高度融合、更便于组织和协调,组织结构和管理更加合理化、科学化。

实现了设计与生产工艺的高度并行。按照传统的串行研制流程,如飞机前机身设计图纸交到沈飞后再进行工艺审查和工装设计,中间要经过设计更改等流程,需要几个月或者更长时间。实行了厂所联合设计后,沈飞工艺审查、工装设计人员在现场随时可对完成设计的飞机部件进行工艺审查和工装设计,有问题马上进行协商解决。大大加快了工艺设计和审查进度,研制周期大幅度缩短。

采用先进的数字化设计手段。运用先进的计算机硬件和软件构建数字化共享设计平台,建立了数据充分共享的四个数据库;建立全机结构及数字样机,各系统和部件采用三维数字化模型进行装配、检查和协调,在电脑前及时发现和解决了协调和结构干涉问题一万多项,实现了飞机设计的100%并行产品数字化定义、100% 虚拟装配、100%电子样机。

航电测试工程

三代战机综合航空电子系统,结构复杂,新技术密集。为了在短时间内研制出高水平的航电系统,从方案论证、系统设计、试验验证到技术管理,决策者和参研者们精于创新,大胆创新。他们把作战思想和战术使用,有机地融进系统设计中,把指挥引导、目标截获、态势显示、目标分配等技术结合在一起,形成强大的体系战斗力。完善的系统、分系统方案、数百页的飞行员操作程序、几千页的接口控制文件、十几万A4的设计图纸、数十万条的软件程序,还进行了系统、分系统的详细设计、制定技术规范,最后集成了一套套精细的装机产品。

为了最大限度对航电系统进行全面验证,结合系统的设计要求,试验人员开发组建了一套集多项先进技术为一体的动态仿真试验环境,实现了地面指挥引导与动态飞行仿真、视景、分系统激励器的有机结合,实现了以战场环境为核心的航电系统全任务、全动态的仿真。

材料实验工程

材料是先进装备研制的物质基础。按常规,需要8-10年才能完成的材料研制工程,60余个参研单位,仅用了4年时间,就取得了突破性进展。填补国内空白的数百项材料,仅试验用料就近百吨,涉及的材料规格上千个,完成各类试验几千项,试验件达数万个,保证了三代机后续研制的正常进行,实现了总体上不受制于人的目标。复合材料外翼完成初步打样设计后,再次碰到了技术难题:打样结果一定要满足总体刚度设计指标,否则复合材料结构设计方案的可行性将被打上问号。为此,主管总师决定在设计阶段进行复合材料外翼频率、模态的对比计算,验证刚度设计的准确性。频率、模态的计算是对结构设计人员设计能力的一次挑战。经过一遍又一遍的计算,一次又一次的攻关,经过多次失败,最终的计算结果与地面共振试验实测频率吻合良好,复合材料外翼设计保证了与金属外翼的刚度相当。这一结果为复合材料外翼设计方案的决策提供了科学依据,使结构材料设计向着成功又迈出了坚实的一步。

大吨位、全功能的燃油试验台的组建,堪称一块“硬骨头”。而科研人员硬是靠自己顽强拼搏和不懈努力,采用全新的设计理念,提出了“综合性、多功能、可持续发展的试验与研究相结合”的准确定位,打破技术常规,突破技术封锁,建成了一座可实现横滚、俯仰以及倒飞全模拟国内技术领先的综合性多自由度试验台。在短短三年内啃下了这块硬骨头。他们设计了新型液压系统,系统采用了全机28兆帕的压力体制、最大流量达215升/分的大功率系统,这在国内尚属首创。

人机工效工程

飞机生命保障系统配套关系复杂,系统研制涉及的技术领域和行业相当多。年轻的设计队伍在充分论证的基础上,结合总体要求和国内实际情况,大胆提出改变原来的系统配套关系,按照飞行员的生理卫生学要求和电子设备通风冷却要求进行设计改进,关键项目全新研制的全系统设计方案。为了适应三代机研制的需要,电源、电气专业人员着眼于机电综合管理和未来多电飞机的发展,对供电系统自动管理和检测进行了全新设计,开创了机载航空电源技术的新局面。自主开发了可作为第三代重型歼击机供电系统试验的综合验证平台;建立了用于飞机内供电系统实验先进水平的综合测试系统;首次采用供电系统与全航电系统进行交联试验的技术。

座舱作为飞行员与飞机交流的唯一界面,其重要性可想而知。随着飞机设计技术的发展,越来越多的飞行作战信息需要飞行员了解和处理,这也对座舱的设计和改进,提出了更高、更新的要求。工程技术人员将人机工效(PVI)的先进设计理念,贯彻到座舱结构设计当中,首次将三维全数字化综合设计手段用于座舱设计,实现了边协调、边设计、边完善的并行工作模式。改进后的座舱布局,采用了先进战斗机座舱显示控制技术方案,切实保证了设计质量和进度。
光电联试工程

C型件联试是航电系统研制的重要阶段,涉及显控、雷达、光电瞄准、通信导航、电子对抗等12个分系统,需要验证、测试的项目超过几百个,参试单位多、参试人员多,而且试验周期又很长。来自有关厂所等20多个单位的60余名工作人员,怀着“绝不让试验进度耽误在自己手里”的热望,从四面八方汇集到一航沈阳所,仅用9个月时间就高质量地完成了全部联试工作,这是国内三代机航电系统研制中历时最短的试验项目。

制造工艺工程

一航沈飞是中国歼击机的摇篮,几十年来先后研制生产了30多个型号数千架歼击机。对飞机工艺、生产流程都有着丰富的经验,但对从来没有干过的三代机来说,还是遇到了前所未有的困难。

首先,全公司职工为掌握三代机新工艺团结奋斗,顽强拼搏,在原技术资料与实物不协调、工装与制造依据不协调、工艺设备与制造技术不协调等复杂条件下,高效率地排除占零件工装总数63%的各类工装差异问题;处理23万个A4,占三代机第四阶段70%的工艺资料更改;合力解决了一个个技术合作的工艺技术缺陷给整个科研生产所带来的颠覆性难题。通过三代机的研制打造了一支在工装制造、数控加工、复合材料、钛合金加工、试飞实验等技术领域具有高超技术的一流团队,使企业的核心竞争力得到全面提升。

其次,第三代机在制造技术上与以往所生产飞机零件结构上最大不同的是,它广泛采用了钛合金材料,如飞机中央翼下壁板、机尾整流罩、发动机防护隔栏等钛合金用量达全机重量的15%。钛合金所必需采用的潜弧焊、穿透焊、双弧焊等焊接工艺对于沈飞来说是一个全新的制造领域。一航沈飞和一航材料院、一航制造所组成联合攻关组,攻下了这一难关。他们反复试验,仅试验用料就达800多公斤。像油箱下壁板焊缝全长达47米,现在技术工人都能操作自如,焊出的焊缝又平又好。钛合金零件焊接技术的掌握打通了三代机生产线,取得了重要的科研成果,填补了国内多项空白。他们在国内首次对飞机常用的钛合金材料,进行了多种焊接方法的试验研究,得到了系统详实的实验结果;首次对飞机钛合金重要承力构件的焊接质量,进行系统的实验研究,优化焊接工艺,获得优质的焊接接头;首次针对飞机用钛合金材料的焊接残余应力和残余变形,进行静态低应力无变形方法焊接;首次完成三代机飞机钛合金装机零件的合格焊接,为解决这一工艺难题提供了重要的工艺基础;为三代机上采用钛合金重要承力构件的设计与焊接制造提供了科学依据。

第三,攻克了钛学铣切的难关。钛合金化学铣是一种无刀痕、无切削力和零件无协调问题的特种加工方法,精度要求相当高。当时国内还没有相关的技术资料参数可供参考,这项技术在国内还是空白。然而,钛铣在第三代歼击机零件加工中占有很大比例,地位相当重要,它的技术掌握及应用程度,直接影响着三代机研制的进度和质量。

在钛合金课题攻关中,他们反复试验,寻找新的工艺方法,确定了适合的工艺参数,找到了钛合金最佳化铣工艺,滿足了三代机重点零件的加工需要。他们用国产化铣胶替代进口,降低了成本,保证了质量;解决了化铣样板与图纸不符的难题,终于全面掌握了三代机的钛铣技术。

第四,攻克了三代机进气道复合材料调节板制造难关。先进的歼击机大量采用了复合材料,复合材料钢度强,单位承重是铝的6倍,隐身效果好,力学性能可预先设计,是当今航空领域衡量飞机制造水平和性能高低的一个重要标志。他们自行设计制造了排布机、进行了热压罐的技术改造,按照复合材料的要求进行了环境改造。三代机进气道调节板经过工艺装备的准备、层压板的研制、下壁板固化实验,固化加压点选择,攻克了树脂工艺性、工装协调性、固化参数稳定性等技术难关,顺利制造出三代机需要的进气道调节板,为独立完成复合材料组件做出了贡献。

第五,一航沈飞理化实验中心首次通过大量实验确立了“镀锡-铋合金” 和“钛铣”分析方法,使新型槽液生产线顺利投产;工装科后机身设计室仅用一个月就复制出了三代机外翼总装型架,自行设计了机翼翻转机构、安装壁板装置、下架用车、减速器装置等;特设科攻克了研制电器盒检测设备难关,他们采用最新的PLC程控器技术进行控制,用计算机进行统一管理,采用触摸屏作为人机界面的设计方案获得成功。

改革开放使我国引进先进重型歼击机成为可能,从消化先进技术到自主设计创新,从艰难起步到成功首飞,从设计定型到成批装备部队,航空工业的干部职工为之呕心沥血,为之艰苦奋斗,他们勇敢地挑战多项国家级技术难题,圆满顺利地完成了三代机研制的光荣任务,取得了自主创新的重大科研成果,向党和人民交上满意的答卷。

Basically, it says that SAC has mastered the 3rd generation technology (which is 4th generation by Western standards) surrounding flankers. They had to develop an advanced integrated avionics system and also use a new engine in WS-10A.

J-11B used a lot of titanium alloy, up to 15% of the weight of the plane. It seemed like SAC's first experience of using large amount of titanium in a fighter jet.

Another area that required a lot of work is developing an intake using a lot of composite material. Talks about discovering how to make stronger and more stealth composite material.

It also talks about the pages after pages of A4 papers used in developing a modern avionics system and the plane itself.

Generally, this article doesn't do a lot other than promoting the works of SAC. Thats to be expected, but it should indicate that we probably have one full regiment (or close to that) of J-11B ready for combat at this point.

So, I guess the big question at this point is where to go from here and what is the main opponent of J-11B?

As I mentioned before, the two big variant expected for J-11B are the twin seater J-11BS and the naval variant J-15 (or some other title). Of course, these 3 main variants will be upgraded over time, but I would expect them to fall in line with this. If past experiences with J-8II and JH-7A are any indication, J-11 could also be used for reconnaissance, electronic warfare, buddy to buddy fuel tanker and even as a carrier based AEW. There are certainly many tasks they could use a heavy and rangy fighter like J-11 to do that can't be done with J-10.

In terms of the enemies, I would say J-11B and its future upgrades would be dealing with the super hornets, strike eagles and upgraded eagles. Japan just made an announcement to upgrade two more regiments of its F-15J. South Korea probably will have 60 F-15Ks. US still has F-15s stationed in this area. So, how does J-11B really fare against these F-15s. I would say that it has numerous advantages against the older F-15s. J-11B would probably be comparable to F-15K in air combat right now. They both have relatively modern avionics system, modern AAMs and advanced slotted array radar. Against upgraded AESA equipped F-15s with newer avionics/weapon system, J-11B would be at a slight disadvantage. However, that can easily be erased once J-11B gets more advanced AAMs and AESA radar. Against something like F-15SG, J-11B would also be facing a fighter with two vastly more powerful powerplants. I don't think J-11B (even with the more powerful WS-10A engines) would be able to match the flight performance of F-15SG. USAF is unlikely to go this route, so J-11B should maintain parity/superiority against possible F-15 opponents in the future.

The super hornets are likely to be carrier J-11s' main opponents in the coming years. As I have stated many times before, carrier J-11 is designed to be superior to super hornets in air combat. The main advantages that the super hornets have against flankers are the more modern avionics system, weapon package and lower RCS. Flankers would probably have advantage in range/payload and supersonic flight performance. It's hard to analyze much more than this, because so many other factors are important in naval air warfare. And, we really don't know how they will both look like 10 years from now.

I don't anticipate flankers to be much useful against stealth fighters, so I will stay clear of that one. Clearly, all the boasting by this newspaper and SAC cannot hide the fact that flankers have no chance against F-22/35. When USN and neigbhouring Asian countries have large numbers of JSF, flankers would pretty much be relegated to anti-shipping duties, EW duties and surveillance duties. While it is important to indigenize flankers, J-11 series really have a limited shelf life as the front-line fighter when compared to other historical PLAAF fighters. Now, one may argue that J-10 would face the same dilemma as J-11. However, one should look carefully at the induction of J-XX, which is expected to be a fighter in the su-27 class. You can form a high-low combination with J-XX and a future variant of J-10. It really would not make much sense to create a high-low combination of J-XX to J-11B. At the same time, J-11B is also probably 50% or more expensive than J-10 at this point. Of course, you can do more missions with J-11B than J-10 (which is why you get the added cost), but that would not make a lot of sense when J-XX joins the service. J-XX will be the expensive fighter, PLAAF will always need a cheaper fighter that can be easily mass produced. That's something we cannot say about J-11B. Also, it is probably much easier to make J-10 stealthier in the future, since it starts off as a more stealthy platform than J-11. As a younger platform, J-10 would also have more room for growth in the future than J-11. Close to homeland, PLAAF would even be able to send future J-10s against JSF. Can we really say the same about future flankers? At this point, the progress of future J-10B is more important to PLAAF than J-11B.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

China and Farnborough air show

So, the Farnborough air show took place this past week with a lot of fanfare. The Russians unveiled their "new su-35" fighter and MS-21 airliner. Bombardier signed the agreement with SAC to build the fuelsage for the C-Series. And as expected, the Chinese airlines bought a bunch of Boeing/Airbus planes and CFM/IAE engines. At the same time, the Chinese aircraft makers achieved nothing as we expected.

We've known for a while that China wants to learn from the West in aircraft design and manufacturing. It has done so in its cooperation with Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer. The question is, do the Russians really have anything to offer to China? If you read the press release this week, the first thing that the Russians talked about were going through this project with China. You can see one of the reports for it here.
At the International Air Show in Farnborough outside London, which celebrates its 60th anniversary this year, Russian air companies are expected to sign a series of major deals with their counterparts.

The deals could cover both running projects, such as the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 civilian aircraft, and other upcoming projects. One of the latter is the MS-21 short- and medium-haul jetliner. Like the SuperJet, it is to be developed cooperatively with outside firms. In this case Chinese aircraft makers could become Russia's leading partners.

Alexei Fyodorov, head of Russia's United Aircraft Building Corporation, was somewhat cautious in announcing this news at Farnborough. Russia, he said, was not against a joint venture with China in the development of the "most ambitious Russian project."

This is not the first time the two countries have attempted to join forces in building an aircraft. In 2006, Russia proposed to China they both design and build a long-haul jetliner under a priority national project included in China's 2006-2010 five-year plan. As a starting point, Russia suggested the Russian-made Il-96-300. The results of this joint venture could compete with America's Boeing and Europe's Airbus.

Russia was clear about its motives. Its air carriers today need between 200 and 300 passenger liners of this class. Unfortunately, many of them cannot afford new models and opt for cheaper used foreign makes. This is why Russia needs overseas partners: to share the risk. The Chinese, however, declined the offer, and Russia had to cancel the program.

China's decision is understandable. They need aircraft designed for medium distances, and this is what they will build. One of them - the ARJ-21, seating 78-90 passengers - is expected to go into production in 2009. It was developed with the American firms and Ukraine's Antonov design bureau. Russia was left out in the cold.

Last year, China decided to build a medium-haul 150-passenger airliner, and in May of this year the Chinese Commercial Aircraft Company was set up in Shanghai.

But Russian producers have not abandoned hope. Sukhoi's General Director Mikhail Pogosyan visited Beijing late in May and said his company would cooperate with China in designing civilian aircraft. Now, at Farnborough, he is echoed by Irkut leaders, the corporation planning to build MS-21s.

Unlike Russia, China has never built its own passenger planes. The 1980 project to develop the 178-seat Y-10, a rival of the Boeing-707, ended in failure as did a later attempt to launch mass production of an airliner similar in design to a McDonnel Douglas model. It may be that the Chinese will now look more favorably at Russian proposals.

Russia needs cooperation. When Russian aircraft builders plan production quantities, they must know if their product will be in demand not so much in Russia as outside it. Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko said the domestic market in Russia is not large enough to make aircraft production commercially viable. In fact, Sukhoi Holding intends to sell 500 of the planned 800 SuperJet-100 models abroad before 2024. To make its position sure, it sold a blocking stake in its civilian segment to Italy's Alenia Aeronautica.

The importance of two large players appearing on the Russian aircraft market is hard to overestimate. They would be capable of eliminating the present shortage of short- and medium-haul airliners. In the next few years, the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 could replace the veteran Yak-42, as well as the Tu-134, which, in many cases, is being written off as scrap. The MS-21, once it enters the market in 2015, will not only replace the Tu-154 and Tu-204, but also the A320, which will have reached the end of its service life by that time. What's more, Irkut promises the MS-21 will be 15% lighter than its European cousin and consume 25% less fuel, a factor to bear in mind as jet fuel prices continue to soar.

Analysts say Russian air carriers will require 800 to 1,000 aircraft of various classes in the next decade. Russian aircraft builders will, unfortunately, be unable to prevail across the board. But medium-haul liners offer a glimmer of hope. Fyodorov says that the MS-21 and the SuperJet-100 can meet over 80% of domestic airline requirements for aircraft in this size range.

Next year, at another show in Le Bourget, France, Irkut is planning to announce the results of international tenders for the production of MS-21 components. It will perhaps be known by then if the Chinese will participate in the project or opt for building their own airliner.

It's understandable why Russia would want to involve China in MS-21 (or RRJ originally). China represents such a large market that it would allow any project to be successful. Despite having possibly the least capable of the 3 designs (ARJ-21, RRJ and MRJ), China's ARJ-21 looks like the most likely to succeed. With 171 orders from domestic carriers already + 7 firm and 20 optional for export, ARJ-21 is far leading the rest of the field. Despite Sukhoi blowing a lot of hot air claiming markets all over the world (including China), it has only received 12 oversea orders so far on top of over 100 Russian orders. The number of Russian airlines with needs for regional aircraft really shocked me as I am composing this blog. In the case of China, I don't think it can actually take any more orders (not enough production capability), but I don't think the same problem exists with Sukhoi. And even in the cases when Chinese airlines are not ordering ARJ-21, they are still ordering from Embraer instead of Sukhoi. At this point, I think MRJ is doomed to failure regardless of the number of technological advancements its claiming.

Back to MS-21, Russians are claiming 25% fuel efficiency over A320. Considering that Airbus and Boeing's next generation airliner are not coming out until 2020, logic would dictate that MS-21 would be the most efficient airliner in this class for 5 years. However, whether the Russians can really develop something that's as fuel efficient and environmentally friendly as the Western firms is questionable. At the end, they are not likely to want to share too much of their design "secrets" with China. This is not to say that the Russians are stingy in this aspect. They have shared far more of their aerospace technology with China than any of the Western companies. Based on the deal they struck with India for the 5th generation aircraft, I would think that Sukhoi would want to keep much of their core technology. China would get to do some outsourcing work and probably an assembly line. But, do they really want to continue to get the same deal that they already get from Airbus? Would the Russians really treat them as an equal partner in such a project? All the bargaining power rests with China in this case. Their market power attracts cooperations from all the major aircraft makers. They have made developing "large airplane" a national pride kind of project (along the line of project 921). If the Russians can't offer something that's better than the west, they would have no chance with China.

As for su-35, it was unveiled with much publicity this week. I guess the Russians have realized by this point that China is not interested in this aircraft due to their faith in the J-11 series. It's interesting that they are offering it to India. I wonder why would India even buy this aircraft with MKI project already so far along? And without these two large buyers, who else would be able to afford su-35 in large numbers? It will be interesting to follow the status of this project.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Responding to PKF's article on Asian Navy

Just to report on some news before we get to the main purpose of this post. There are some news from this week:
  • EMAL catapult project has been confirmed by Qinghua alumni website
  • LCAC in JN has apparently been launched
  • Chinese WIG aircraft had its first lift-off/flight
  • Latest Chinese conventional/nuclear subs are using all-electrical propulsion
  • A prototype for a major project in CAC has recently passed through AVIC-1 examination committee. Not sure what this project is at this point.


And now, the article I've really been responding to is PKF's analysis to IN vs PLAN. This article appeared on the June version of Kanwa and then all over the Chinese military bbs. Now, it has even been spread to English webs with its appearance on UPI and Part 2. Now, I personally think PLAN is better in hardware than IN. But, my focus here is to look at the arguments of PKF rather than to do a comparison of PLAN/IN. With that in my mind, let's look at PKF's focus.

First, he states that China is far ahead of India in submarine. I don't think anyone can debate this part. Of course, he manages to understate the number of nuclear subs and conventional subs China has. We've seen at least 3 094s, 3 Yuans, 1 new 039B, 12 to 16 Songs and more than 2 093s (does he really think China will have the same number of SSNs as SSBNs?). Rather than consider the current force on both sides, he compares what China has right now to what India will have. And this is a theme that will be used in the rest of the article.

The second part is his comparison of frigates on both side. First, he totally ignores the excessive number of Jiangwei's that China has, but mentioned the 3 4500 tonne Type 16A frigate serving for IN. Of course, Type 16A are actually 3850 tonne in full load. And it doesn't seem to contain any sensor/weapons that are actually more recent than the recent Jiangwei. So, I would've ignored both. Just focusing on the relatively advanced frigates, China has 6 054/A, whereas India currently has the 3 Talwars. PKF believes that the construction is at a parity, with India slightly ahead in technology. I suppose that he is factoring in the 3 Project 17 class frigates, but there really is no telling that these ships will be completed before the next batch of 054As. Yes, we know that Project 17s are launched, but we've also seen 4 054As getting commissioned in less than 2 years of seeing the first pictures coming out. With the next batch of 054As already under construction in 2 shipyards, it's hard to see these ships actually coming out later than the Project 17s (considering how much delay Indian ships normally suffer). And it's also quite perplexing where this technological disadvantage for 054A comes from. We've argued for quite long that 054A's sensors/SAMs are upgrades over what is on Sov class. So, considering that Sov class's air defense suite is basically the same as the ones on Talwar and Project 17. PKF's belief must have originated from the Club missiles on these ships. We could spend all day arguing over and the sensors/missiles on these ships, but I think it's generally agreeable that they are in the same class. The upgraded Talwars on order are not going to change that scenario. So for the forseeable future, IN will have a maximum of 9 frigates in this class, but PLAN will have far more than that given the current rate of construction for 054 class.

And finally, he concluded his arguments by talking about Indian superiority in 6000+ ton warships. He starts by saying that China has a lead right now with the 052B/C, 051B/C and Sovs vs 3 Project 15s. However, he continued by saying that IN will have an absolute lead in quantity and quality in the future, because it is building 3 Project 15As and will take in 2 aircraft carriers next decade. I think it's pretty obvious by now that China is preparing a carrier group at Sanya. So, to say do the comparison without factor that in is not realistic. Also, he mentioned that the only major ship that China is building recently is 054A. He seemed to have forgotten the recently launched Type 071 LPD. At the same time, he is ignoring all the signs that China will be building its next wave of destroyers (successors to 052C) in JN very soon. The relocation of JiangNan shipyard did not really slow down PLAN naval expansion. It simply shifted the focus from destroyers to frigates, FACs and submarines. With the world's largest shipyard coming into line, I think the shift will come back to large warship in the coming 3 years. Of course, IN advantage in carrier operation cannot be underestimated. However, it is not the only determining factor when judging large warship strength.

A lot of PKF's arguments are made against the unknowns of PLAN's future expansion plan. However, we've seen that PLAN has managed a very comprehensive modernization/expansion plan. They have put the effort into improving all the areas that PLAN observers thought they needed improvement in. They built almost every type of warship that we've expected them to add. So, I don't think anyone should believe that their progress would just stop now. And I think he summed up the situation and negated his own point at the end by saying the following,
"In terms of shipbuilding technology and production craftwork, however, especially in such production processes as cutting, welding and spray-painting, the military vessels produced by China -- particularly those vessels built at the two shipyards in Shanghai -- are far superior to the Indian navy ships."
Although PKF did not want to admit to this, but you can same the same thing when compared to Russian built ships. That's why in the end, China has more concerns on the Eastern side with South Korea and Japan. These are the two countries that have well established shipbuilding industry and the economy to compete against a PLAN naval build up. China has the advantage of being able to simply outbuild most countries in the world due to its existing shipbuilding capacity and the high quality to cost ratio of the shipyards. It doesn't have this advantage against South Korea and Japan. All 3 countries are very competitive in the shipbuilding market because of this. Having said this, China is technologically behind South Korea in civilian shipbuilding, but that's not necessarily the case with military shipbuilding. For example, South Korea would not be better than China in submarine or aircraft carrier construction, because China has been investing/developing in these areas for much longer. In addition, I do think that China has the advantage in sensors/weapons, because it uses all indigenous products -> better cost to performance ratio than South Korea and Japan. And when compared to India, these advantages are even more pronounced.

PLAN's military hardware probably surpassed IN only in 2006, but it's hard to see IN reversing the trend and actually catching up. IN talks about building 1 scorpion a year from 2012 to 2017, but China is already building 3 yuan a year right now. The only thing that IN has over PLAN is its carrier operation. And certainly, this is one area that PLAN needs a lot of experience with in the next 20 years. We can certainly say the same thing about the other ships that it has been getting.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Chinese Patrol fleet

So, I noticed recently of a bunch of pictures of Chinese patrol ships coming out on Chinese bbs. I didn't think too much about them until Galrahn posted a note on this. You can see the English article on this here.

There are also a couple of Chinese articles that you can find here and here.

Basically, we can gather the following from these articles:

  1. They sent out Haixun-31, the largest and most capable Chinese patrol boat, in this 5 day mission sailing through 17,000 nm.
  2. Haixun-31's length is 112.8 m, beam is 13.8 m and draft is 4.38 m, the displacement is 3000 tonnes. The maximum speed is over 22 knots and it has a range of 6000 nm at 18 knots. It also has 40 days of endurance.
  3. It's the only Chinese patrol boat with a helipad, a hangar and a flight control tower.
  4. They also brought out Haixun-111, Haixun-113 and 60 other small patrol boats.
  5. What's interesting is that they sailed in the East Sea around Chunxiao gas field. This is significant because it's the major dispute between China/Japan in gas exploration.


So, to give you guys an idea of how large the patrol boats are, I'm posting a picture of Haixun-31 and a picture of the small boat.



We know about the deal recently signed between Japan and China on exploration for Chunxiao, but this exercise may have been planned before that agreement. Anyhow, I don't think Japan will appreciate this one too much.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Varyag Pics + Congress on China

So, I got some apparently new photos of Varyag. Now, we at SDF are still not sure these are recent photos, because the island and the crane beside Varyag looked to be painted in the satellite photos. So keeping that in mind, these are some nice new photos to look at that were posted at the aftermath of the Varyag left Dalian rumour mill.






Also, found some new pictures of MCM ships sailing in Shanghai. It's kind of surprising that we haven't seen more of these pictures in the recent times.



And if you guys ever visit SDF, you might have noticed a thread that I started recently called PLA discussions in congress.
What I find kind of interesting is the wide variety of topics that were looked at. I'm impressed that the congress looked at PLA so comprehensively. Of course, they do still rely heavily on the annual DoD review on PLA + SIPRI report. And I certainly would not expect any of them to have the time to follow PLA any more closely than that. I get the impression that they still focus very heavily on Russia's support to PLA buildup. The Sov and Kilo purchases are obviously the main focus here. I found it interesting that they also started to realize that China is growing to a stage where it no longer needs Russia weapon. And I really think it's the fault of Pentagon + the people that come to these hearings that the commissions aren't more aware of this. I don't expect the congress or Dod reps to follow the individual platforms like the way that a naval geek like myself would. So, it was refreshing to look at PLA expansion/export to other countries from a political point of view. I would recommend everyone to at least gloss over the hearing that I posted in that link.